First of all, there were Libya's civil war. That time, the United States and the world lost almost 1.3 millions barrel of oil a day. To brake the up-coming crisis, the International Energy Agency (IEA) released a big part of their emergency stocks. This stabilised the crude prices, but not for a long time. There were daily stagnation's, highs and lows. The dollar was also an important factor. But we have to mention the rising Saudi output and the payment dispute between India and Iran too. All this led to the big export from West Africa.
In August, the Untied States will import around 19 million barrels of oil and Europe even 40 millions. In addition, African oil will also flow the Asian refineries.
"The increasingly active involvement by consumer governments has deepened the politicisation of the oil market," said London-based Barclays Capital oil analyst Amrita Sen.”
Today, there is a big risk for all traders and companies who would like to attend long-term strategies. It is a risk because oil prices have never depended so much on the international politics as nowadays.